Is The New Prohibition Winning?

A new poll shows a majority cite alcohol’s risks

An ironic stock photo for this post. Photo by Marissa Lewis on Unsplash

A new Gallup poll released this week shows the percentage of U.S. adults who say they consume alcohol has fallen to 54%, the lowest since Gallup starting asking the question in 1939.

The poll confirms what sales reports have indicated for some time: Americans are over their pandemic bender and cutting back on drinking now that the world hasn’t ended and we’re just going to have to deal with it. But the Gallup report attributes the decline specifically to “recent research indicating that any level of alcohol consumption may negatively affect health.” It adds, “This has been a sharp reversal from previous recommendations that moderate drinking could offer some protective benefits.”

Earlier this year, I wrote about what I call “The New Prohibition,” which I described as “a campaign by many in the public health sector and the media to move the discussion away from responsible, moderate consumption of wine and other adult beverages to total abstinence.” In a subsequent piece, I argued that the “no safe level of alcohol” mantra was intended to scare us into believing every sip we take leads to cancer.

The Gallup poll suggests The New Prohibition may be winning.

“Americans' drinking habits are shifting amid the medical world’s reappraisal of alcohol’s health effects. After decades of relative steadiness in the proportion of U.S. adults who drink, Gallup has documented three consecutive years of decline in the U.S. drinking rate as research supporting the ‘no amount of alcohol is safe’ message mounts,” the report said.

Even those who confess consumption told Gallup they’ve been cutting back, another sign that the health message has been effective.

The cynic in me might argue that “use” instead of “drink” alcoholic beverages biases this question with the negative connotation of drug use.

The poll noted that younger drinkers have broadly accepted the alcohol-is-bad-for-you, “possibly because they hadn’t been as exposed to earlier advice that moderate drinking, particularly wine, is heart-healthy.” The argument is gaining traction with older adults too, though.

Overall, 53% of respondents said moderate consumption — one to two drinks a day — is harmful, a dramatic increase from 28% in 2018 to 39% in 2023 and 45% last year. Those saying it makes no difference fell from 50% in 2018 to 27% this year. Only 6% said moderate consumption was good for you, continuing a steady decline from 25% in 2005.

The poll found unsurprising gender differences: Men prefer beer, women prefer wine, by large margins. Wine industry analysts will be dismayed, though not surprised, at the age differences, “with young and middle-aged adults more likely than those aged 55 and older to prefer beer, and young adults being the least likely to favor wine.” Overall, 38% of drinkers prefer beer, while 30% opt for liquor and 29% go for wine.

I’ve no reason to question the poll’s findings. Americans have become more health conscious and aware of what they’re putting into their bodies, and that supports a trend toward lower consumption and moderation. Also, younger drinkers’ reluctance could be a result of seeing their boomer parents consuming all those cocktails and wine. In other words, there are other factors that may be contributing to the decline.

I also wonder about confirmation bias in Gallup’s report. The question highlighted in the graphic above asks respondents “do you have occasion to use alcoholic beverages” (emphasis added), instead of the more neutral “drink” or “consume.” The word “use” is a not-so-subtle suggestion of drug use. Yes, even I say “alcohol is my drug of choice,” but the loaded language, including a reference to “mood-altering substances,” implies judgment that could influence respondents’ answers. Neutral language would be fairer and more credible.

Three other interesting points: The decline in alcohol consumption does not appear to reflect a shift to marijuana, use of which remains steady.

Second, liquor has been gaining on wine as the preferred tipple of drinkers since 2018, when 34% preferred wine to 18% choosing spirits. That appears to show the strength of the craft spirits movement.

And, like everything else in U.S. society these days, there’s a sharp partisan divide: Over the past two years, the poll has reported a sharp 19% drop in Republicans who say they consume alcohol (down to 46%), while Democrats have been holding steady at 61%.

After all, the news these days will drive one to drink.